Altyn Asyr 1–2 Şagadam: Result & Stats

Altyn Asyr

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Şagadam

3/4/2024

Ýokary Liga · Round 1Sport toplumy stadiony Büzmeýin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Altyn Asyr62%

×Draw21%

Şagadam17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Altyn AsyrExpected goals in this matchŞagadam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.96

Altyn Asyr

2.05

Şagadam

0.96

Altyn Asyr creates 114% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 83 away

2.52

creates per match

0.98

0.93

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Altyn Asyr

2.52

Şagadam

0.98

allows per match

Altyn Asyr

0.93

Şagadam

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altyn Asyr+0.00on par

Şagadam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altyn Asyr ↓

Şagadam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Altyn Asyr or draw

83%

Altyn Asyr or Şagadam

79%

Draw or Şagadam

38%

Winning margin

Altyn Asyr wins by 2+

38%

Şagadam wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Altyn Asyr 1+ goals

87%

Altyn Asyr 2+ goals

61%

Altyn Asyr 3+ goals

33%

Şagadam 1+ goals

62%

Şagadam 2+ goals

25%

Şagadam 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)

79%

Şagadam (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altyn Asyr at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

Şagadam away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.58 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altyn Asyr attack 2.52 + Şagadam defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.05

Şagadam attack 0.98 + Altyn Asyr defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Altyn Asyr scores more

62%

level

21%

Şagadam scores more

17%

Altyn Asyr at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Altyn Asyr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff