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Altyn Asyr vs Köpetdag Aşgabat — Ýokary Liga 2020

Altyn Asyr
Altyn Asyr
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Köpetdag Aşgabat
Köpetdag Aşgabat
11/25/2023Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 22Sport toplumy stadiony Büzmeýin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Altyn Asyr64%
×Draw20%
Köpetdag Aşgabat16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altyn Asyr
2.20
Köpetdag Aşgabat
1.01

Altyn Asyr creates 118% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 86 away

creates per match

Altyn Asyr
2.52
Köpetdag Aşgabat
1.09

allows per match

Altyn Asyr
0.93
Köpetdag Aşgabat
1.87

finishing

Altyn Asyr+0.00on par
Köpetdag Aşgabat+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altyn Asyr ↓

Köpetdag Aşgabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Altyn Asyr or draw
84%
Altyn Asyr or Köpetdag Aşgabat
80%
Draw or Köpetdag Aşgabat
36%

Winning margin

Altyn Asyr wins by 2+
41%
Köpetdag Aşgabat wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Altyn Asyr 1+ goals
89%
Altyn Asyr 2+ goals
64%
Altyn Asyr 3+ goals
37%
Köpetdag Aşgabat 1+ goals
64%
Köpetdag Aşgabat 2+ goals
27%
Köpetdag Aşgabat 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)
80%
Köpetdag Aşgabat (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altyn Asyr at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

Köpetdag Aşgabat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.87 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altyn Asyr attack 2.52 + Köpetdag Aşgabat defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.20

Köpetdag Aşgabat attack 1.09 + Altyn Asyr defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Altyn Asyr scores more
64%
level
20%
Köpetdag Aşgabat scores more
16%

Altyn Asyr at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Altyn Asyr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Altyn Asyr vs Köpetdag Aşgabat

Altyn Asyr beat Köpetdag Aşgabat 5-1 in Ýokary Liga on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Sport toplumy stadiony Büzmeýin in Ashgabat.