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Altona Magic vs South Melbourne — Victoria NPL 2026

Altona Magic
Altona Magic
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
South Melbourne
South Melbourne
3/16/2024Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 6Paisley Park Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Altona Magic30%
×Draw26%
South Melbourne44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altona Magic
1.17
South Melbourne
1.48

South Melbourne creates 26% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 89 away

creates per match

Altona Magic
1.20
South Melbourne
1.49

allows per match

Altona Magic
1.48
South Melbourne
1.15

finishing

Altona Magic+0.00on par
South Melbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altona Magic ↓

South Melbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Altona Magic or draw
56%
Altona Magic or South Melbourne
74%
Draw or South Melbourne
70%

Winning margin

Altona Magic wins by 2+
12%
South Melbourne wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Altona Magic 1+ goals
69%
Altona Magic 2+ goals
33%
Altona Magic 3+ goals
11%
South Melbourne 1+ goals
77%
South Melbourne 2+ goals
43%
South Melbourne 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Altona Magic (draw refunded)
40%
South Melbourne (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altona Magic at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 88 matches

South Melbourne away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.15 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altona Magic attack 1.20 + South Melbourne defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

South Melbourne attack 1.49 + Altona Magic defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Altona Magic scores more
30%
level
26%
South Melbourne scores more
44%

South Melbourne at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "South Melbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Altona Magic vs South Melbourne

South Melbourne beat Altona Magic 4-1 in Victoria NPL on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Paisley Park Soccer Complex in Melbourne.