Altona Magic 0–4 Green Gully: Result & Stats

Altona Magic

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Green Gully

5/28/2022

Victoria NPL · Round 15Paisley Park Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Altona Magic36%

×Draw25%

Green Gully38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Altona MagicExpected goals in this matchGreen Gully

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.41

Altona Magic

1.37

Green Gully

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 87 away

1.22

creates per match

1.32

1.49

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Altona Magic

1.22

Green Gully

1.32

allows per match

Altona Magic

1.49

Green Gully

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altona Magic+0.00on par

Green Gully+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altona Magic ↓

Green Gully →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Altona Magic or draw

62%

Altona Magic or Green Gully

75%

Draw or Green Gully

64%

Winning margin

Altona Magic wins by 2+

17%

Green Gully wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Altona Magic 1+ goals

75%

Altona Magic 2+ goals

40%

Altona Magic 3+ goals

16%

Green Gully 1+ goals

76%

Green Gully 2+ goals

41%

Green Gully 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Altona Magic (draw refunded)

49%

Green Gully (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altona Magic at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.49 · 87 matches

Green Gully away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altona Magic attack 1.22 + Green Gully defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.37

Green Gully attack 1.32 + Altona Magic defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Altona Magic scores more

36%

level

25%

Green Gully scores more

38%

Green Gully at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Green Gully will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff