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Altona Magic vs Bentleigh Greens — Victoria NPL 2026

Altona Magic
Altona Magic
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Bentleigh Greens
Bentleigh Greens
4/24/2021Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 9Paisley Park Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Altona Magic38%
×Draw25%
Bentleigh Greens37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altona Magic
1.44
Bentleigh Greens
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 63 away

creates per match

Altona Magic
1.22
Bentleigh Greens
1.37

allows per match

Altona Magic
1.49
Bentleigh Greens
1.67

finishing

Altona Magic+0.00on par
Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altona Magic ↓

Bentleigh Greens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Altona Magic or draw
63%
Altona Magic or Bentleigh Greens
75%
Draw or Bentleigh Greens
62%

Winning margin

Altona Magic wins by 2+
18%
Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Altona Magic 1+ goals
76%
Altona Magic 2+ goals
42%
Altona Magic 3+ goals
18%
Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals
76%
Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals
42%
Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Altona Magic (draw refunded)
50%
Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altona Magic at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.49 · 87 matches

Bentleigh Greens away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.67 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altona Magic attack 1.22 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.37 + Altona Magic defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Altona Magic scores more
38%
level
25%
Bentleigh Greens scores more
37%

Altona Magic at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Altona Magic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Altona Magic 0–2 Bentleigh Greens

Bentleigh Greens beat Altona Magic 2-0 in Victoria NPL on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Paisley Park Soccer Complex in Melbourne.