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Altona 93 vs Paloma — Oberliga - Hamburg 2026

Altona 93
Altona 93
Preview
13:30
Paloma
Paloma
4/10/2027Oberliga - HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 29
Big match
46%
Altona 93
model favours
46%24%30%
1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Altona 9346%
×Draw24%
Paloma30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altona 93
1.67
Paloma
1.29

Altona 93 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 57 away

creates per match

Altona 93
1.43
Paloma
1.86

allows per match

Altona 93
0.71
Paloma
1.91

finishing

Altona 93+0.00on par
Paloma+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altona 93 ↓

Paloma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Altona 93 or draw
70%
Altona 93 or Paloma
76%
Draw or Paloma
54%

Winning margin

Altona 93 wins by 2+
24%
Paloma wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Altona 93 1+ goals
81%
Altona 93 2+ goals
50%
Altona 93 3+ goals
23%
Paloma 1+ goals
72%
Paloma 2+ goals
37%
Paloma 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Altona 93 (draw refunded)
61%
Paloma (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altona 93 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Paloma away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.91 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altona 93 attack 1.43 + Paloma defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.67

Paloma attack 1.86 + Altona 93 defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Altona 93 scores more
46%
level
24%
Paloma scores more
30%

Altona 93 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Altona 93 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
93
DLL
Paloma
LWLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Altona 93 face Paloma (Oberliga - Hamburg)

Oberliga - Hamburg returns with Altona 93 hosting Paloma. Match starts April 10, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.