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Altenmarkt vs Thalgau — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Altenmarkt
Altenmarkt
FT
4 – 0
Thalgau
Thalgau
9/22/2019Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 8Sportanlage Schlatterberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Altenmarkt41%
×Draw22%
Thalgau37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altenmarkt
1.92
Thalgau
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 84 away

creates per match

Altenmarkt
1.56
Thalgau
1.67

allows per match

Altenmarkt
2.00
Thalgau
2.27

finishing

Altenmarkt+0.00on par
Thalgau+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altenmarkt ↓

Thalgau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Altenmarkt or draw
63%
Altenmarkt or Thalgau
78%
Draw or Thalgau
59%

Winning margin

Altenmarkt wins by 2+
22%
Thalgau wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Altenmarkt 1+ goals
85%
Altenmarkt 2+ goals
57%
Altenmarkt 3+ goals
30%
Thalgau 1+ goals
84%
Thalgau 2+ goals
54%
Thalgau 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Altenmarkt (draw refunded)
52%
Thalgau (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altenmarkt at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.00 · 39 matches

Thalgau away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.27 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altenmarkt attack 1.56 + Thalgau defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.92

Thalgau attack 1.67 + Altenmarkt defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Altenmarkt scores more
41%
level
22%
Thalgau scores more
37%

Altenmarkt at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Altenmarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: Altenmarkt 4–0 Thalgau

Altenmarkt beat Thalgau 4-0 in Landesliga - Salzburg on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Sportanlage Schlatterberg in Altenmarkt im Pongau.