Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 VfB Stuttgart: Result & Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

VfB Stuttgart

K. Volland 83', 76'

11/23/2018

Bundesliga · Round 12BayArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Bayer Leverkusen56%

×Draw21%

VfB Stuttgart23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayer LeverkusenExpected goals in this matchVfB Stuttgart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.28

Bayer Leverkusen

2.10

VfB Stuttgart

1.28

Bayer Leverkusen creates 64% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 18 away

2.35

creates per match

1.56

1.00

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Bayer Leverkusen

2.35

VfB Stuttgart

1.56

allows per match

Bayer Leverkusen

1.00

VfB Stuttgart

1.84

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.77scores more than expected

finishing

Bayer Leverkusen-0.09on par

VfB Stuttgart+0.77scores more

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayer Leverkusen ↓

VfB Stuttgart →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Bayer Leverkusen or draw

77%

Bayer Leverkusen or VfB Stuttgart

79%

Draw or VfB Stuttgart

44%

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen wins by 2+

34%

VfB Stuttgart wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bayer Leverkusen 1+ goals

88%

Bayer Leverkusen 2+ goals

62%

Bayer Leverkusen 3+ goals

35%

VfB Stuttgart 1+ goals

72%

VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals

37%

VfB Stuttgart 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bayer Leverkusen (draw refunded)

71%

VfB Stuttgart (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayer Leverkusen at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

VfB Stuttgart away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.84 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayer Leverkusen attack 2.35 + VfB Stuttgart defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.10

VfB Stuttgart attack 1.56 + Bayer Leverkusen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bayer Leverkusen scores more

56%

level

21%

VfB Stuttgart scores more

23%

Bayer Leverkusen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

K. Volland

Bayer Leverkusen · F

8.0

Match Events

3'

18'

34'

37'

39'

42'

46'

E. Thommy← Pablo Maffeo

66'

M. Weiser← T. Jedvaj

67'

L. Alario← C. Aránguiz

76'

K. Volland↳ K. Havertz

78'

Wendell← L. Bender

81'

G. Castro← C. Gentner

81'

C. Akolo← D. Aogo

83'

K. Volland↳ L. Alario

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BayerVfB

Overview

59%Possession41%

17Total Shots10

6Corners9

13Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots10

4On Target2

9Off Target6

4Blocked2

12Inside Box5

5Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

564Total Passes368

475Accurate Passes272

84%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0