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Alondras vs Barco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Alondras
Alondras
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Barco
Barco
1/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Campo do Morrazo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Alondras41%
×Draw27%
Barco31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alondras
1.33
Barco
1.12

Alondras creates 19% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 78 away

creates per match

Alondras
1.25
Barco
1.21

allows per match

Alondras
1.03
Barco
1.42

finishing

Alondras+0.00on par
Barco+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alondras ↓

Barco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alondras or draw
69%
Alondras or Barco
73%
Draw or Barco
59%

Winning margin

Alondras wins by 2+
19%
Barco wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Alondras 1+ goals
74%
Alondras 2+ goals
38%
Alondras 3+ goals
15%
Barco 1+ goals
67%
Barco 2+ goals
31%
Barco 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alondras (draw refunded)
57%
Barco (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alondras at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 110 matches

Barco away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alondras attack 1.25 + Barco defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Barco attack 1.21 + Alondras defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alondras scores more
41%
level
27%
Barco scores more
31%

Alondras at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alondras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alondras vs Barco

Barco beat Alondras 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 17, 2021.

The match was played at Campo do Morrazo in Cangas.