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Almería II vs Atlético Porcuna — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Almería II
Almería II
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Atlético Porcuna
Atlético Porcuna
12/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 8Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Almería II62%
×Draw22%
Atlético Porcuna16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almería II
1.89
Atlético Porcuna
0.85

Almería II creates 122% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 94 away

creates per match

Almería II
2.09
Atlético Porcuna
0.99

allows per match

Almería II
0.72
Atlético Porcuna
1.69

finishing

Almería II+0.00on par
Atlético Porcuna+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almería II ↓

Atlético Porcuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Almería II or draw
84%
Almería II or Atlético Porcuna
78%
Draw or Atlético Porcuna
38%

Winning margin

Almería II wins by 2+
37%
Atlético Porcuna wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Almería II 1+ goals
85%
Almería II 2+ goals
56%
Almería II 3+ goals
29%
Atlético Porcuna 1+ goals
57%
Atlético Porcuna 2+ goals
21%
Atlético Porcuna 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Almería II (draw refunded)
79%
Atlético Porcuna (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almería II at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.72 · 76 matches

Atlético Porcuna away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.69 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almería II attack 2.09 + Atlético Porcuna defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.89

Atlético Porcuna attack 0.99 + Almería II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Almería II scores more
62%
level
22%
Atlético Porcuna scores more
16%

Almería II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Almería II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Almería II 1–4 Atlético Porcuna

Atlético Porcuna beat Almería II 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 5, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos in Almería.