Almere City II vs Feyenoord U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 29+ matches
Almere City II45%
Feyenoord U2133%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Almere City II creates 18% more chances
Season form · 29 home / 69 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over70
- Under30
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes69
- No31
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Almere City II ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Almere City II at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches
Feyenoord U21 away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Almere City II attack 2.31 + Feyenoord U21 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.95
Feyenoord U21 attack 1.99 + Almere City II defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.65
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Almere City II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Almere City II host Feyenoord U21 on Saturday, 5 December 2020 at 14:00. The match is part of the U21 Divisie 1 2020/2021 season.
Preview: Almere City II host Feyenoord U21
December 5, 2020: Almere City II take on Feyenoord U21 in U21 Divisie 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Almere City II host Feyenoord U21 at Sportpark Fanny Bl Koen - Almere C - veld 1.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.