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Almere City FC vs Jong PSV U21 — Eerste Divisie 2018

Almere City FC
Almere City FC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
8/16/2019Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 2Yanmar Stadion (Almere)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Almere City FC51%
×Draw22%
Jong PSV U2127%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almere City FC
1.91
Jong PSV U21
1.32

Almere City FC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 149 away

creates per match

Almere City FC
1.75
Jong PSV U21
1.52

allows per match

Almere City FC
1.12
Jong PSV U21
2.06

finishing

Almere City FC+0.00on par
Jong PSV U21+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

Jong PSV U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw
73%
Almere City FC or Jong PSV U21
78%
Draw or Jong PSV U21
49%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+
29%
Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals
85%
Almere City FC 2+ goals
57%
Almere City FC 3+ goals
30%
Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
73%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
38%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)
66%
Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.12 · 112 matches

Jong PSV U21 away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.06 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 1.75 + Jong PSV U21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.91

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.52 + Almere City FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Almere City FC scores more
51%
level
22%
Jong PSV U21 scores more
27%

Almere City FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Almere City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Almere City FC 3–2 Jong PSV U21

Almere City FC beat Jong PSV U21 3-2 in Eerste Divisie on August 16, 2019.

The match was played at Yanmar Stadion (Almere).