Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Almahalla vs Al-Madina — Premier League 2019

Almahalla
Almahalla
FT
1 – 1
Al-Madina
Al-Madina
5/6/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Almahalla39%
×Draw29%
Al-Madina32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almahalla
1.20
Al-Madina
1.05

Almahalla creates 14% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 64 away

creates per match

Almahalla
1.04
Al-Madina
0.86

allows per match

Almahalla
1.25
Al-Madina
1.36

finishing

Almahalla+0.00on par
Al-Madina+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almahalla ↓

Al-Madina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Almahalla or draw
68%
Almahalla or Al-Madina
71%
Draw or Al-Madina
61%

Winning margin

Almahalla wins by 2+
17%
Al-Madina wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Almahalla 1+ goals
70%
Almahalla 2+ goals
34%
Almahalla 3+ goals
12%
Al-Madina 1+ goals
65%
Al-Madina 2+ goals
28%
Al-Madina 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Almahalla (draw refunded)
55%
Al-Madina (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almahalla at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Al-Madina away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.36 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almahalla attack 1.04 + Al-Madina defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.20

Al-Madina attack 0.86 + Almahalla defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Almahalla scores more
39%
level
29%
Al-Madina scores more
32%

Almahalla at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Almahalla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Almahalla 1–1 Al-Madina

Almahalla and Al-Madina drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 6, 2021.