Alloa Athletic 2–2 Inverness CT: Result & Stats

Alloa Athletic

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Inverness CT

L. Donnelly 73'

C. Sammon 70'

C. MacLeod 67'

D. Devine 7'

9/14/2024

League #183 · Round 6Indodrill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alloa Athletic33%

×Draw26%

Inverness CT41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alloa AthleticExpected goals in this matchInverness CT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.42

Alloa Athletic

1.23

Inverness CT

1.42

Inverness CT creates 15% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 14 away

1.52

creates per match

1.21

1.64

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Alloa Athletic

1.52

Inverness CT

1.21

allows per match

Alloa Athletic

1.64

Inverness CT

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alloa Athletic+0.00on par

Inverness CT+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alloa Athletic ↓

Inverness CT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Alloa Athletic or draw

59%

Alloa Athletic or Inverness CT

74%

Draw or Inverness CT

67%

Winning margin

Alloa Athletic wins by 2+

14%

Inverness CT wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Alloa Athletic 1+ goals

71%

Alloa Athletic 2+ goals

35%

Alloa Athletic 3+ goals

13%

Inverness CT 1+ goals

76%

Inverness CT 2+ goals

41%

Inverness CT 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)

44%

Inverness CT (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alloa Athletic at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

Inverness CT away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alloa Athletic attack 1.52 + Inverness CT defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.23

Inverness CT attack 1.21 + Alloa Athletic defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alloa Athletic scores more

33%

level

26%

Inverness CT scores more

41%

Inverness CT at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

D. Devine

31'

C. MacLeod

54'

M. Virtanen

64'

C. Sammon← M. Virtanen

64'

S. Scougall← K. Cawley

67'

C. MacLeod↳ A. Brooks

69'

K. Bray← B. McKay

70'

C. Sammon↳ C. O'Donnell

73'

L. Donnelly↳ C. Sammon

78'

J. Nolan

82'

C. MacKay← J. Nolan

86'

C. Ferguson← A. Brooks

Alloa

Inverness

21

Dibaga

6

⚽

2

4

5

27

▼

Nolan

8

Mackinnon

14

⚽

MacLeod

9

▼

McKay

11

Longstaff

10

A

▼

31

2

6

15

17

7

▼

Cawley

4

Hethering

14

▼

Virtanen

20

A

O'Donnell

19

Buchanan

9

⚽

Donnelly

64'▲C. Sammon←▼M. Virtanen

64'▲S. Scougall←▼K. Cawley

Alloa Athletic substitutes

18Sammon12Scougall1Ogayi11Nevans5Graham

Manager: D. Ferguson

69'▲K. Bray←▼B. McKay

82'▲C. MacKay←▼J. Nolan

86'▲C. Ferguson←▼A. Brooks

Inverness CT substitutes

22Bray15MacKay24Ferguson18Thompson32Ewan19Keogh12Strachan1Newman