Alloa Athletic vs Cove Rangers

Alloa Athletic

Preview

15:00

Cove Rangers

12/5/2026

League #183 · Round 17Recreation Park

Big match

41%

Cove Rangers

model favours

35%24%41%

Cove Rangers score first in only 5% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

58%

over 2.5 goals

61%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Alloa Athletic35%

×Draw24%

Cove Rangers41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alloa AthleticExpected goals in this matchCove Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.57

Alloa Athletic

1.45

Cove Rangers

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

1.52

creates per match

1.50

1.64

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Alloa Athletic

1.52

Cove Rangers

1.50

allows per match

Alloa Athletic

1.64

Cove Rangers

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alloa Athletic+0.00on par

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alloa Athletic ↓

Cove Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Alloa Athletic or draw

59%

Alloa Athletic or Cove Rangers

76%

Draw or Cove Rangers

65%

Winning margin

Alloa Athletic wins by 2+

16%

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Alloa Athletic 1+ goals

77%

Alloa Athletic 2+ goals

42%

Alloa Athletic 3+ goals

18%

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

79%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

46%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)

47%

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alloa Athletic at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

Cove Rangers away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alloa Athletic attack 1.52 + Cove Rangers defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cove Rangers attack 1.50 + Alloa Athletic defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alloa Athletic scores more

35%

level

24%

Cove Rangers scores more

41%

Cove Rangers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cove Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Alloa Athletic score first in only 13% of matches
62% of Alloa Athletic’s goals come after the 75th minute
73% of Alloa Athletic’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Athletic

DDLLW

Rangers

LLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff