Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Allerheiligen vs Gurten — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Allerheiligen
Allerheiligen
CANC
17:00
Gurten
Gurten
6/4/2021Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 30Sportanlage Allerheiligen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Allerheiligen35%
×Draw24%
Gurten41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Allerheiligen
1.48
Gurten
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 110 away

creates per match

Allerheiligen
1.79
Gurten
1.56

allows per match

Allerheiligen
1.66
Gurten
1.17

finishing

Allerheiligen+0.00on par
Gurten+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Allerheiligen ↓

Gurten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Allerheiligen or draw
59%
Allerheiligen or Gurten
76%
Draw or Gurten
65%

Winning margin

Allerheiligen wins by 2+
17%
Gurten wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Allerheiligen 1+ goals
77%
Allerheiligen 2+ goals
43%
Allerheiligen 3+ goals
19%
Gurten 1+ goals
80%
Gurten 2+ goals
48%
Gurten 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Allerheiligen (draw refunded)
46%
Gurten (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Allerheiligen at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.66 · 73 matches

Gurten away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Allerheiligen attack 1.79 + Gurten defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.48

Gurten attack 1.56 + Allerheiligen defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Allerheiligen scores more
35%
level
24%
Gurten scores more
41%

Gurten at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allerheiligen face Gurten (Regionalliga - Mitte)

Regionalliga - Mitte returns with Allerheiligen hosting Gurten. Match starts June 4, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Allerheiligen host Gurten at Sportanlage Allerheiligen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.