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Alittihad Misurata vs Asswehly — Premier League 2019

Alittihad Misurata
Alittihad Misurata
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Asswehly
Asswehly
2/23/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Alittihad Misurata33%
×Draw30%
Asswehly36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alittihad Misurata
1.01
Asswehly
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 69 away

creates per match

Alittihad Misurata
1.15
Asswehly
1.39

allows per match

Alittihad Misurata
0.76
Asswehly
0.88

finishing

Alittihad Misurata+0.00on par
Asswehly+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alittihad Misurata ↓

Asswehly →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Alittihad Misurata or draw
64%
Alittihad Misurata or Asswehly
70%
Draw or Asswehly
67%

Winning margin

Alittihad Misurata wins by 2+
13%
Asswehly wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Alittihad Misurata 1+ goals
64%
Alittihad Misurata 2+ goals
27%
Alittihad Misurata 3+ goals
8%
Asswehly 1+ goals
66%
Asswehly 2+ goals
29%
Asswehly 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alittihad Misurata (draw refunded)
48%
Asswehly (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alittihad Misurata at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.76 · 62 matches

Asswehly away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.88 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alittihad Misurata attack 1.15 + Asswehly defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.01

Asswehly attack 1.39 + Alittihad Misurata defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Alittihad Misurata scores more
33%
level
30%
Asswehly scores more
36%

Asswehly at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Asswehly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alittihad Misurata vs Asswehly

Alittihad Misurata and Asswehly drew 0-0 in Premier League on February 23, 2023.