Alittihad Misurata 1–1 Al Ahli Tripoli

Alittihad Misurata

FT

1 – 1

Al Ahli Tripoli

4/28/2022

Premier League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Alittihad Misurata27%

×Draw32%

Al Ahli Tripoli41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alittihad MisurataExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Tripoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

1.06

Alittihad Misurata

0.80

Al Ahli Tripoli

1.06

Al Ahli Tripoli creates 32% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 72 away

1.15

creates per match

1.35

0.76

allows per match

0.46

creates per match

Alittihad Misurata

1.15

Al Ahli Tripoli

1.35

allows per match

Alittihad Misurata

0.76

Al Ahli Tripoli

0.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alittihad Misurata+0.00on par

Al Ahli Tripoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alittihad Misurata ↓

Al Ahli Tripoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–117%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Alittihad Misurata or draw

59%

Alittihad Misurata or Al Ahli Tripoli

68%

Draw or Al Ahli Tripoli

73%

Winning margin

Alittihad Misurata wins by 2+

9%

Al Ahli Tripoli wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Alittihad Misurata 1+ goals

55%

Alittihad Misurata 2+ goals

19%

Alittihad Misurata 3+ goals

5%

Al Ahli Tripoli 1+ goals

65%

Al Ahli Tripoli 2+ goals

29%

Al Ahli Tripoli 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Alittihad Misurata (draw refunded)

40%

Al Ahli Tripoli (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alittihad Misurata at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.76 · 62 matches

Al Ahli Tripoli away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alittihad Misurata attack 1.15 + Al Ahli Tripoli defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.80

Al Ahli Tripoli attack 1.35 + Alittihad Misurata defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alittihad Misurata scores more

27%

level

32%

Al Ahli Tripoli scores more

41%

Al Ahli Tripoli at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Ahli Tripoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff