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Alianza vs Municipal Limeño — Primera Division 2019

Alianza
Alianza
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Municipal Limeño
Municipal Limeño
3/21/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 11Estadio Cuscatlán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Alianza52%
×Draw25%
Municipal Limeño22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza
1.58
Municipal Limeño
0.94

Alianza creates 68% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 130 away

creates per match

Alianza
1.83
Municipal Limeño
1.07

allows per match

Alianza
0.80
Municipal Limeño
1.32

finishing

Alianza+0.00on par
Municipal Limeño+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza ↓

Municipal Limeño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Alianza or draw
78%
Alianza or Municipal Limeño
75%
Draw or Municipal Limeño
48%

Winning margin

Alianza wins by 2+
27%
Municipal Limeño wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alianza 1+ goals
79%
Alianza 2+ goals
47%
Alianza 3+ goals
21%
Municipal Limeño 1+ goals
61%
Municipal Limeño 2+ goals
24%
Municipal Limeño 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alianza (draw refunded)
70%
Municipal Limeño (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.80 · 161 matches

Municipal Limeño away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza attack 1.83 + Municipal Limeño defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.58

Municipal Limeño attack 1.07 + Alianza defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Alianza scores more
52%
level
25%
Municipal Limeño scores more
22%

Alianza at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Alianza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alianza vs Municipal Limeño

Alianza beat Municipal Limeño 4-0 in Primera Division on March 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Cuscatlán in San Salvador.