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Alianza vs Jocoro — Primera Division 2019

Alianza
Alianza
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Jocoro
Jocoro
11/26/2020Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Cuscatlán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Alianza59%
×Draw23%
Jocoro17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza
1.73
Jocoro
0.80

Alianza creates 116% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 103 away

creates per match

Alianza
1.83
Jocoro
0.80

allows per match

Alianza
0.80
Jocoro
1.63

finishing

Alianza+0.00on par
Jocoro+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza ↓

Jocoro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Alianza or draw
83%
Alianza or Jocoro
77%
Draw or Jocoro
41%

Winning margin

Alianza wins by 2+
34%
Jocoro wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Alianza 1+ goals
82%
Alianza 2+ goals
52%
Alianza 3+ goals
25%
Jocoro 1+ goals
55%
Jocoro 2+ goals
19%
Jocoro 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alianza (draw refunded)
78%
Jocoro (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.80 · 161 matches

Jocoro away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.63 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza attack 1.83 + Jocoro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.73

Jocoro attack 0.80 + Alianza defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Alianza scores more
59%
level
23%
Jocoro scores more
17%

Alianza at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Alianza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alianza vs Jocoro

Alianza beat Jocoro 4-1 in Primera Division on November 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Cuscatlán in San Salvador.