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Alianza Valledupar vs Santa Fe — Primera A 2018

Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
Preview
21:05
Santa Fe
Santa Fe
9/19/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 11Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau
Big match
40%
Alianza Valledupar
model favours
40%28%32%

Santa Fe are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 166+ matches

Alianza Valledupar40%
×Draw28%
Santa Fe32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Valledupar
1.25
Santa Fe
1.10

Alianza Valledupar creates 14% more chances

Season form · 166 home / 184 away

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.31
Santa Fe
1.08

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.13
Santa Fe
1.20

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par
Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Santa Fe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw
68%
Alianza Valledupar or Santa Fe
72%
Draw or Santa Fe
60%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
17%
Santa Fe wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
71%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
36%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
13%
Santa Fe 1+ goals
67%
Santa Fe 2+ goals
30%
Santa Fe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
55%
Santa Fe (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.13 · 166 matches

Santa Fe away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.20 · 184 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.31 + Santa Fe defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Santa Fe attack 1.08 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more
40%
level
28%
Santa Fe scores more
32%

Alianza Valledupar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Santa Fe score first in only 25% of matches
  • Alianza Valledupar sit 17, Santa Fe 4 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Alianza Valledupar
Balanced
Santa Fe
Attack-heavy
49%Possession52%
79%Pass accuracy77%
12.1Shots14.2
0.98xGBiggest gap1.24
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Alianza ValleduparSanta Fe

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Alianza Valledupar
2
Draws
4
Santa Fe
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 50%
1–10–11–41–16–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Valledupar
WLWDD
Fe
WDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alianza Valledupar face Santa Fe (Primera A)

Primera A returns with Alianza Valledupar hosting Santa Fe. Match starts September 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Alianza Valledupar host Santa Fe at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.