Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alianza Valledupar vs Bucaramanga — Primera A 2018

Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
Preview
23:00
Bucaramanga
Bucaramanga
8/10/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 4Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau
Big match
42%
Alianza Valledupar
model favours
42%29%29%

Bucaramanga score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 166+ matches

Alianza Valledupar42%
×Draw29%
Bucaramanga29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Valledupar
1.25
Bucaramanga
0.99

Alianza Valledupar creates 26% more chances

Season form · 166 home / 168 away

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.31
Bucaramanga
0.86

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.13
Bucaramanga
1.20

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par
Bucaramanga+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Bucaramanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw
71%
Alianza Valledupar or Bucaramanga
71%
Draw or Bucaramanga
58%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
19%
Bucaramanga wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
71%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
36%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
13%
Bucaramanga 1+ goals
63%
Bucaramanga 2+ goals
26%
Bucaramanga 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
59%
Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.13 · 166 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.20 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.31 + Bucaramanga defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bucaramanga attack 0.86 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more
42%
level
29%
Bucaramanga scores more
29%

Alianza Valledupar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bucaramanga outscore their xG (1.7 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Alianza Valledupar
Balanced
Bucaramanga
Defensively solid
49%Possession53%
79%Pass accuracy80%
12.1Shots12.8
0.98xGBiggest gap1.14
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Alianza ValleduparBucaramanga

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Alianza Valledupar
1
Draws
6
Bucaramanga
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 40%
2–10–51–31–31–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Valledupar
WLWDD
Bucaramanga
LLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Alianza Valledupar host Bucaramanga

August 10, 2026: Alianza Valledupar take on Bucaramanga in Primera A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Alianza Valledupar host Bucaramanga at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.