Alianza Lima W vs Defensores W

Alianza Lima W

Preview

20:15

Defensores W

8/2/2026

Liga Women · Clausura - 2

90%

Alianza Lima W

model favours

90%7%3%

3–0

likely score

76%

over 2.5 goals

41%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Alianza Lima W90%

×Draw7%

Defensores W3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza Lima WExpected goals in this matchDefensores W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.55

0.55

Alianza Lima W

3.55

Defensores W

0.55

Alianza Lima W creates 545% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

3.71

creates per match

0.40

0.71

allows per match

3.40

creates per match

Alianza Lima W

3.71

Defensores W

0.40

allows per match

Alianza Lima W

0.71

Defensores W

3.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Lima W+0.00on par

Defensores W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima W ↓

Defensores W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–012%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Alianza Lima W or draw

97%

Alianza Lima W or Defensores W

93%

Draw or Defensores W

10%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima W wins by 2+

75%

Defensores W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Alianza Lima W 1+ goals

97%

Alianza Lima W 2+ goals

86%

Alianza Lima W 3+ goals

67%

Defensores W 1+ goals

42%

Defensores W 2+ goals

11%

Defensores W 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima W (draw refunded)

97%

Defensores W (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima W at home — creates 3.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Defensores W away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima W attack 3.71 + Defensores W defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 3.55

Defensores W attack 0.40 + Alianza Lima W defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Alianza Lima W scores more

90%

level

7%

Defensores W scores more

3%

Alianza Lima W at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Alianza Lima W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

W

LWWDW

W

LLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff