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Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2018

Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
Preview
20:00
UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
8/15/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 5Estadio Alejandro Villanueva
Big match
58%
Alianza Lima
model favours
58%24%18%

UTC Cajamarca score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Alianza Lima58%
×Draw24%
UTC Cajamarca18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Lima
1.73
UTC Cajamarca
0.84

Alianza Lima creates 106% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 144 away

creates per match

Alianza Lima
1.83
UTC Cajamarca
0.91

allows per match

Alianza Lima
0.77
UTC Cajamarca
1.63

finishing

Alianza Lima+0.00on par
UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

UTC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw
82%
Alianza Lima or UTC Cajamarca
76%
Draw or UTC Cajamarca
42%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+
33%
UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals
82%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
52%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
25%
UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
57%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
21%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
76%
UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.77 · 151 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 1.83 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.73

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.91 + Alianza Lima defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Alianza Lima scores more
58%
level
24%
UTC Cajamarca scores more
18%

Alianza Lima at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Alianza Lima score first in only 20% of matches
  • Alianza Lima have won 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • Alianza Lima sit 1, UTC Cajamarca 13 in the table
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Alianza Lima
Defensively solid
UTC Cajamarca
Balanced
55%Possession47%
80%Pass accuracy75%
13.2Shots12.2
1.40xGBiggest gap1.03
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Alianza LimaUTC Cajamarca

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

8
Alianza Lima
2
Draws
0
UTC Cajamarca
Avg goals: 1.3BTTS: 10%
1–03–00–01–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Lima
LLLDD
Cajamarca
WWDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Alianza Lima host UTC Cajamarca

August 15, 2026: Alianza Lima take on UTC Cajamarca in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Alianza Lima host UTC Cajamarca at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.