Alianza Lima 1–1 UTC Cajamarca: Result & Stats

Alianza Lima

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

UTC Cajamarca

C. Ascues 80'

W. Pretel 90+2'

3/22/2018

Primera División · Torneo de Verano - 5Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Alianza Lima58%

×Draw24%

UTC Cajamarca18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza LimaExpected goals in this matchUTC Cajamarca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.84

Alianza Lima

1.73

UTC Cajamarca

0.84

Alianza Lima creates 106% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 144 away

1.83

creates per match

0.91

0.77

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Alianza Lima

1.83

UTC Cajamarca

0.91

allows per match

Alianza Lima

0.77

UTC Cajamarca

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Lima+0.00on par

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

UTC Cajamarca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw

82%

Alianza Lima or UTC Cajamarca

76%

Draw or UTC Cajamarca

42%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

33%

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

82%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

52%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

25%

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

57%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

21%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

76%

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.77 · 151 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 1.83 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.73

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.91 + Alianza Lima defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Alianza Lima scores more

58%

level

24%

UTC Cajamarca scores more

18%

Alianza Lima at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

R. Cruzado

Alianza Lima · M

7.9

Match Events

27'

J. Li← R. Guizasola

42'

D. Minaya← L. Cardoza

45'

Willy Pretel

58'

C. Ascues← M. Velarde

66'

Alejandro Hohberg

67'

G. Leyes← J. Posito

70'

J. Collazos← A. Ugarriza

73'

Juan Goyoneche

77'

Juan Diego Li

80'

C. Ascues↳ L. Ramírez

90+2'

W. Pretel↳ J. Vergara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaUTC

Overview

67%Possession33%

19Total Shots9

9Corners1

16Fouls16

Shots

19Total Shots9

6On Target4

10Off Target3

3Blocked2

13Inside Box4

6Outside Box5

Passing

67%Possession33%

505Total Passes256

419Accurate Passes171

83%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides2