Alianza FC 3–2 Veraguas: Result & Stats

Alianza FC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Veraguas

O. Cawthorne 90+2'

J. Cano 40'

A. Díaz 9'

E. Díaz 82'

A. McKenzie 65' (OG)

4/7/2024

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 11Estadio Prof. Javier Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Alianza FC43%

×Draw27%

Veraguas30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza FCExpected goals in this matchVeraguas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.06

Alianza FC

1.33

Veraguas

1.06

Alianza FC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 77 away

1.05

creates per match

1.08

1.03

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Alianza FC

1.05

Veraguas

1.08

allows per match

Alianza FC

1.03

Veraguas

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza FC+0.00on par

Veraguas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza FC ↓

Veraguas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alianza FC or draw

70%

Alianza FC or Veraguas

73%

Draw or Veraguas

57%

Winning margin

Alianza FC wins by 2+

20%

Veraguas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Alianza FC 1+ goals

74%

Alianza FC 2+ goals

38%

Alianza FC 3+ goals

15%

Veraguas 1+ goals

65%

Veraguas 2+ goals

29%

Veraguas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Alianza FC (draw refunded)

59%

Veraguas (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza FC at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches

Veraguas away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.60 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza FC attack 1.05 + Veraguas defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Veraguas attack 1.08 + Alianza FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alianza FC scores more

43%

level

27%

Veraguas scores more

30%

Alianza FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alianza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

A. Díaz

26'

M. Jimenez

30'

N. Espinosa← J. Herrera

37'

M. Jimenez

37'

M. Jimenez

40'

J. Cano

42'

D. Edmund← R. Montenegro

46'

G. Chiari← J. Girón

50'

A. Machado

57'

A. McKenzie← H. Guardia

63'

M. Díaz← R. Verley

65'

A. McKenzieOwn goal

66'

E. Díaz← J. Sagel

66'

J. Ángulo← A. Pinzón

71'

77'

D. Edmund

77'

J. Asprilla← A. Díaz

77'

R. Perdomo← L. Triana

82'

A. Mendoza

82'

E. Díaz

84'

90+2'

O. Cawthorne

Alianza

Veraguas

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Díaz

▼

Guardia

Manager: E. Nimbley

46'▲G. Chiari←▼J. Girón

57'▲A. McKenzie←▼H. Guardia

63'▲M. Díaz←▼R. Verley

77'▲J. Asprilla←▼A. Díaz

77'▲R. Perdomo←▼L. Triana

Alianza FC substitutes

ChiariMcKenzieDíazAsprillaPerdomoMedinaJustinianiRoblesRodríguez

Manager: M. Pimentel

30'▲N. Espinosa←▼J. Herrera

42'▲D. Edmund←▼R. Montenegro

66'▲E. Díaz←▼J. Sagel

66'▲J. Ángulo←▼A. Pinzón

Veraguas substitutes

EspinosaEdmundDíazÁnguloTenorioArmuellesGarcíaRiquelmeCruz

Liga Panameña de Fútbol: Alianza FC 3–2 Veraguas

Alianza FC beat Veraguas 3-2 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on April 7, 2024.

Goals: A. Díaz (9'), J. Cano (40'), A. McKenzie (65' o.g.), E. Díaz (82'), O. Cawthorne (90+2').

The match was played at Estadio Prof. Javier Cruz in Ciudad de Panamá.

Alianza FC vs Veraguas — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga Panameña de Fútbol: Alianza FC 3–2 Veraguas