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Alianza FC vs Tauro FC — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Alianza FC
Alianza FC
Preview
01:30
Tauro FC
Tauro FC
8/25/2026Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 5Estadio Javier Cruz
Big match
37%
Tauro FC
model favours
34%29%37%

Top-of-the-table clash — Alianza FC 2 vs Tauro FC 4

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Alianza FC34%
×Draw29%
Tauro FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza FC
1.06
Tauro FC
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 139 away

creates per match

Alianza FC
1.05
Tauro FC
1.21

allows per match

Alianza FC
1.03
Tauro FC
1.08

finishing

Alianza FC+0.00on par
Tauro FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza FC ↓

Tauro FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Alianza FC or draw
63%
Alianza FC or Tauro FC
71%
Draw or Tauro FC
66%

Winning margin

Alianza FC wins by 2+
13%
Tauro FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Alianza FC 1+ goals
65%
Alianza FC 2+ goals
29%
Alianza FC 3+ goals
9%
Tauro FC 1+ goals
67%
Tauro FC 2+ goals
31%
Tauro FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alianza FC (draw refunded)
48%
Tauro FC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza FC at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches

Tauro FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.08 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza FC attack 1.05 + Tauro FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Tauro FC attack 1.21 + Alianza FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Alianza FC scores more
34%
level
29%
Tauro FC scores more
37%

Tauro FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tauro FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
FC
DDDDW
FC
LLDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Alianza FC host Tauro FC

August 25, 2026: Alianza FC take on Tauro FC in Liga Panameña de Fútbol. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Alianza FC host Tauro FC at Estadio Javier Cruz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.