Alianza FC vs Sporting San Miguelito — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 132+ matches
Alianza FC36%
Sporting San Miguelito34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 132 home / 132 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under68
- Over32
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Alianza FC ↓
Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Alianza FC at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches
Sporting San Miguelito away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.99 · 132 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Alianza FC attack 1.05 + Sporting San Miguelito defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02
Sporting San Miguelito attack 0.94 + Alianza FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
Alianza FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "Alianza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Alianza FC host Sporting San Miguelito on Saturday, 2 November 2024 at 01:30. The match is part of the Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018/2019 season.
Liga Panameña de Fútbol: Alianza FC 0–1 Sporting San Miguelito
Sporting San Miguelito beat Alianza FC 1-0 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on November 2, 2024.
Goals: R. Cuello (52').
The match was played at Estadio Rommel Fernández Gutiérrez in Ciudad de Panamá.