Alianza FC 0–0 Sporting San Miguelito

Alianza FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting San Miguelito

2/4/2023

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 4Estadio Prof. Javier Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Alianza FC36%

×Draw31%

Sporting San Miguelito34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza FCExpected goals in this matchSporting San Miguelito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.98

Alianza FC

1.02

Sporting San Miguelito

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 132 away

1.05

creates per match

0.94

1.03

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Alianza FC

1.05

Sporting San Miguelito

0.94

allows per match

Alianza FC

1.03

Sporting San Miguelito

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza FC+0.00on par

Sporting San Miguelito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza FC ↓

Sporting San Miguelito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Alianza FC or draw

66%

Alianza FC or Sporting San Miguelito

69%

Draw or Sporting San Miguelito

64%

Winning margin

Alianza FC wins by 2+

14%

Sporting San Miguelito wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Alianza FC 1+ goals

64%

Alianza FC 2+ goals

27%

Alianza FC 3+ goals

8%

Sporting San Miguelito 1+ goals

62%

Sporting San Miguelito 2+ goals

26%

Sporting San Miguelito 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Alianza FC (draw refunded)

52%

Sporting San Miguelito (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza FC at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches

Sporting San Miguelito away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.99 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza FC attack 1.05 + Sporting San Miguelito defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02

Sporting San Miguelito attack 0.94 + Alianza FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Alianza FC scores more

36%

level

31%

Sporting San Miguelito scores more

34%

Alianza FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Alianza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff