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Alianza FC vs San Francisco FC — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Alianza FC
Alianza FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Francisco FC
San Francisco FC
8/25/2018Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 5Estadio Luis Ernesto Cascarita Tapia (Ciudad de Panamá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Alianza FC36%
×Draw30%
San Francisco FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza FC
1.06
San Francisco FC
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 133 away

creates per match

Alianza FC
1.05
San Francisco FC
1.06

allows per match

Alianza FC
1.03
San Francisco FC
1.08

finishing

Alianza FC+0.00on par
San Francisco FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza FC ↓

San Francisco FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Alianza FC or draw
65%
Alianza FC or San Francisco FC
70%
Draw or San Francisco FC
64%

Winning margin

Alianza FC wins by 2+
14%
San Francisco FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Alianza FC 1+ goals
65%
Alianza FC 2+ goals
29%
Alianza FC 3+ goals
9%
San Francisco FC 1+ goals
65%
San Francisco FC 2+ goals
28%
San Francisco FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alianza FC (draw refunded)
51%
San Francisco FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza FC at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches

San Francisco FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.08 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza FC attack 1.05 + San Francisco FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

San Francisco FC attack 1.06 + Alianza FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Alianza FC scores more
36%
level
30%
San Francisco FC scores more
35%

Alianza FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Alianza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alianza FC vs San Francisco FC

Alianza FC beat San Francisco FC 1-0 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on August 25, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Ernesto Cascarita Tapia (Ciudad de Panamá).