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Alianza FC vs Plaza Amador — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Alianza FC
Alianza FC
Preview
23:15
Plaza Amador
Plaza Amador
8/16/2026Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 4Estadio Javier Cruz
Big match
39%
Plaza Amador
model favours
31%29%39%

Plaza Amador score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Alianza FC31%
×Draw29%
Plaza Amador39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza FC
1.00
Plaza Amador
1.15

Plaza Amador creates 15% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 137 away

creates per match

Alianza FC
1.05
Plaza Amador
1.27

allows per match

Alianza FC
1.03
Plaza Amador
0.95

finishing

Alianza FC+0.00on par
Plaza Amador+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza FC ↓

Plaza Amador →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Alianza FC or draw
61%
Alianza FC or Plaza Amador
71%
Draw or Plaza Amador
69%

Winning margin

Alianza FC wins by 2+
12%
Plaza Amador wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Alianza FC 1+ goals
63%
Alianza FC 2+ goals
26%
Alianza FC 3+ goals
8%
Plaza Amador 1+ goals
68%
Plaza Amador 2+ goals
32%
Plaza Amador 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Alianza FC (draw refunded)
45%
Plaza Amador (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza FC at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches

Plaza Amador away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.95 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza FC attack 1.05 + Plaza Amador defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Plaza Amador attack 1.27 + Alianza FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alianza FC scores more
31%
level
29%
Plaza Amador scores more
39%

Plaza Amador at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Plaza Amador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plaza Amador are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Alianza FC 2 vs Plaza Amador 1
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
DDDDW
Amador
DWDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alianza FC vs Plaza Amador — Match Preview

Alianza FC face Plaza Amador on August 16, 2026 in this Liga Panameña de Fútbol fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Alianza FC host Plaza Amador at Estadio Javier Cruz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.