Alianza FC 2–3 Plaza Amador: Result & Stats

Alianza FC

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Plaza Amador

8/9/2025

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 4Estadio Javier Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Alianza FC31%

×Draw29%

Plaza Amador39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza FCExpected goals in this matchPlaza Amador

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.15

Alianza FC

1.00

Plaza Amador

1.15

Plaza Amador creates 15% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 137 away

1.05

creates per match

1.27

1.03

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Alianza FC

1.05

Plaza Amador

1.27

allows per match

Alianza FC

1.03

Plaza Amador

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza FC+0.00on par

Plaza Amador+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza FC ↓

Plaza Amador →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Alianza FC or draw

61%

Alianza FC or Plaza Amador

71%

Draw or Plaza Amador

69%

Winning margin

Alianza FC wins by 2+

12%

Plaza Amador wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Alianza FC 1+ goals

63%

Alianza FC 2+ goals

26%

Alianza FC 3+ goals

8%

Plaza Amador 1+ goals

68%

Plaza Amador 2+ goals

32%

Plaza Amador 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Alianza FC (draw refunded)

45%

Plaza Amador (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza FC at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches

Plaza Amador away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.95 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza FC attack 1.05 + Plaza Amador defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Plaza Amador attack 1.27 + Alianza FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alianza FC scores more

31%

level

29%

Plaza Amador scores more

39%

Plaza Amador at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Plaza Amador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff