Alianza FC 1–4 Costa del Este: Result & Stats

Alianza FC

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Costa del Este

12/10/2020

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - Play-offsEstadio Prof. Javier Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Alianza FC37%

×Draw30%

Costa del Este33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza FCExpected goals in this matchCosta del Este

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.02

Alianza FC

1.11

Costa del Este

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 111 away

1.05

creates per match

1.02

1.03

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Alianza FC

1.05

Costa del Este

1.02

allows per match

Alianza FC

1.03

Costa del Este

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza FC+0.00on par

Costa del Este+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza FC ↓

Costa del Este →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Alianza FC or draw

67%

Alianza FC or Costa del Este

70%

Draw or Costa del Este

63%

Winning margin

Alianza FC wins by 2+

15%

Costa del Este wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Alianza FC 1+ goals

67%

Alianza FC 2+ goals

30%

Alianza FC 3+ goals

10%

Costa del Este 1+ goals

64%

Costa del Este 2+ goals

27%

Costa del Este 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Alianza FC (draw refunded)

53%

Costa del Este (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza FC at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches

Costa del Este away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.18 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza FC attack 1.05 + Costa del Este defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Costa del Este attack 1.02 + Alianza FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Alianza FC scores more

37%

level

30%

Costa del Este scores more

33%

Alianza FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Alianza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff