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Alianza Atletico vs Alianza Lima — Primera División 2026

Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
2/4/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 2Estadio Campeones del '36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Alianza Atletico34%
×Draw32%
Alianza Lima35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Atletico
0.96
Alianza Lima
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Alianza Atletico
1.10
Alianza Lima
1.00

allows per match

Alianza Atletico
0.94
Alianza Lima
0.82

finishing

Alianza Atletico-0.30scores less
Alianza Lima-0.33scores less

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

Alianza Lima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw
65%
Alianza Atletico or Alianza Lima
68%
Draw or Alianza Lima
66%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+
12%
Alianza Lima wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals
62%
Alianza Atletico 2+ goals
25%
Alianza Atletico 3+ goals
7%
Alianza Lima 1+ goals
62%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
25%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)
50%
Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.82 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 1.10 + Alianza Lima defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.96

Alianza Lima attack 1.00 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more
34%
level
32%
Alianza Lima scores more
35%

Alianza Lima at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Alianza Atletico 0–2 Alianza Lima

Alianza Lima beat Alianza Atletico 2-0 in Primera División on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Campeones del '36 in Sullana.