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Algeciras vs Real Murcia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Algeciras
Algeciras
Preview
16:00
Real Murcia
Real Murcia
2/21/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Estadio Nuevo Mirador
Big match
38%
Algeciras
model favours
38%30%32%
1–0
likely score
65%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Algeciras38%
×Draw30%
Real Murcia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeciras
1.11
Real Murcia
1.00

Algeciras creates 11% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 76 away

creates per match

Algeciras
1.25
Real Murcia
1.18

allows per match

Algeciras
0.82
Real Murcia
0.97

finishing

Algeciras+0.00on par
Real Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeciras ↓

Real Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Algeciras or draw
68%
Algeciras or Real Murcia
70%
Draw or Real Murcia
62%

Winning margin

Algeciras wins by 2+
15%
Real Murcia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Algeciras 1+ goals
67%
Algeciras 2+ goals
30%
Algeciras 3+ goals
10%
Real Murcia 1+ goals
63%
Real Murcia 2+ goals
26%
Real Murcia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Algeciras (draw refunded)
54%
Real Murcia (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeciras at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.82 · 76 matches

Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeciras attack 1.25 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.11

Real Murcia attack 1.18 + Algeciras defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Algeciras scores more
38%
level
30%
Real Murcia scores more
32%

Algeciras at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Algeciras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Algeciras
LLWDW
Murcia
WWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Algeciras vs Real Murcia — Match Preview

Algeciras face Real Murcia on February 21, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Algeciras host Real Murcia at Estadio Nuevo Mirador.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.