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Algeciras vs Ibiza — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Algeciras
Algeciras
Preview
15:00
Ibiza
Ibiza
4/11/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Estadio Nuevo Mirador
Big match
40%
Algeciras
model favours
40%30%30%

Ibiza raise their game against the top half — 45% wins vs the upper half, only 43% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Algeciras40%
×Draw30%
Ibiza30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeciras
1.11
Ibiza
0.92

Algeciras creates 21% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 57 away

creates per match

Algeciras
1.25
Ibiza
1.02

allows per match

Algeciras
0.82
Ibiza
0.98

finishing

Algeciras+0.00on par
Ibiza+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeciras ↓

Ibiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Algeciras or draw
70%
Algeciras or Ibiza
70%
Draw or Ibiza
60%

Winning margin

Algeciras wins by 2+
16%
Ibiza wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Algeciras 1+ goals
67%
Algeciras 2+ goals
30%
Algeciras 3+ goals
10%
Ibiza 1+ goals
60%
Ibiza 2+ goals
23%
Ibiza 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Algeciras (draw refunded)
57%
Ibiza (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeciras at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.82 · 76 matches

Ibiza away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeciras attack 1.25 + Ibiza defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.11

Ibiza attack 1.02 + Algeciras defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Algeciras scores more
40%
level
30%
Ibiza scores more
30%

Algeciras at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Algeciras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 6 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Algeciras
LLWDW
Ibiza
LWLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Algeciras face Ibiza (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Algeciras hosting Ibiza. Match starts April 11, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Algeciras host Ibiza at Estadio Nuevo Mirador.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.