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Algeciras vs Hércules — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Algeciras
Algeciras
Preview
15:00
Hércules
Hércules
10/18/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Estadio Nuevo Mirador
49%
Algeciras
model favours
49%27%24%

Hércules raise their game against the top half — 37% wins vs the upper half, only 34% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Algeciras49%
×Draw27%
Hércules24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeciras
1.39
Hércules
0.89

Algeciras creates 56% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 38 away

creates per match

Algeciras
1.25
Hércules
0.95

allows per match

Algeciras
0.82
Hércules
1.53

finishing

Algeciras+0.00on par
Hércules+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeciras ↓

Hércules →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Algeciras or draw
76%
Algeciras or Hércules
73%
Draw or Hércules
51%

Winning margin

Algeciras wins by 2+
23%
Hércules wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Algeciras 1+ goals
75%
Algeciras 2+ goals
40%
Algeciras 3+ goals
16%
Hércules 1+ goals
59%
Hércules 2+ goals
22%
Hércules 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Algeciras (draw refunded)
67%
Hércules (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeciras at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.82 · 76 matches

Hércules away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeciras attack 1.25 + Hércules defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Hércules attack 0.95 + Algeciras defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Algeciras scores more
49%
level
27%
Hércules scores more
24%

Algeciras at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Algeciras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Algeciras
LLWDW
Hércules
DWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Algeciras face Hércules (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Algeciras hosting Hércules. Match starts October 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Algeciras host Hércules at Estadio Nuevo Mirador.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.