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Alfaro vs Varea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Alfaro
Alfaro
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Varea
Varea
10/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 2Estadio La Molineta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Alfaro41%
×Draw24%
Varea34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfaro
1.60
Varea
1.44

Alfaro creates 11% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 108 away

creates per match

Alfaro
2.22
Varea
1.81

allows per match

Alfaro
1.07
Varea
0.97

finishing

Alfaro+0.00on par
Varea+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfaro ↓

Varea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Alfaro or draw
66%
Alfaro or Varea
76%
Draw or Varea
59%

Winning margin

Alfaro wins by 2+
21%
Varea wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Alfaro 1+ goals
80%
Alfaro 2+ goals
47%
Alfaro 3+ goals
22%
Varea 1+ goals
76%
Varea 2+ goals
42%
Varea 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Alfaro (draw refunded)
55%
Varea (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfaro at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

Varea away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.97 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfaro attack 2.22 + Varea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.60

Varea attack 1.81 + Alfaro defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alfaro scores more
41%
level
24%
Varea scores more
34%

Alfaro at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alfaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Alfaro 0–3 Varea

Varea beat Alfaro 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Molineta in Alfaro.