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Alemannia Aachen U19 vs Viktoria Köln U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Alemannia Aachen U19
Alemannia Aachen U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Viktoria Köln U19
Viktoria Köln U19
11/25/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 12Sportpark am See

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Alemannia Aachen U1934%
×Draw23%
Viktoria Köln U1943%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alemannia Aachen U19
1.55
Viktoria Köln U19
1.77

Viktoria Köln U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 70 away

creates per match

Alemannia Aachen U19
1.09
Viktoria Köln U19
1.43

allows per match

Alemannia Aachen U19
2.10
Viktoria Köln U19
2.01

finishing

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par
Viktoria Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Aachen U19 ↓

Viktoria Köln U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Alemannia Aachen U19 or draw
57%
Alemannia Aachen U19 or Viktoria Köln U19
77%
Draw or Viktoria Köln U19
66%

Winning margin

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+
16%
Viktoria Köln U19 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals
79%
Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals
46%
Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals
20%
Viktoria Köln U19 1+ goals
83%
Viktoria Köln U19 2+ goals
53%
Viktoria Köln U19 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)
44%
Viktoria Köln U19 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Aachen U19 at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.10 · 58 matches

Viktoria Köln U19 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.01 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.09 + Viktoria Köln U19 defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.55

Viktoria Köln U19 attack 1.43 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more
34%
level
23%
Viktoria Köln U19 scores more
43%

Viktoria Köln U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Viktoria Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alemannia Aachen U19 1 – 0 Viktoria Köln U19

Alemannia Aachen U19 beat Viktoria Köln U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark am See in Eschweiler.