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Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Durango — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Preview
01:00
Durango
Durango
9/11/2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 8
52%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
model favours
52%25%24%
1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Alebrijes de Oaxaca52%
×Draw25%
Durango24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.65
Durango
1.04

Alebrijes de Oaxaca creates 59% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 19 away

creates per match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.41
Durango
0.89

allows per match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.20
Durango
1.89

finishing

Alebrijes de Oaxaca+0.00on par
Durango+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alebrijes de Oaxaca ↓

Durango →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw
76%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca or Durango
75%
Draw or Durango
48%

Winning margin

Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins by 2+
28%
Durango wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1+ goals
81%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2+ goals
49%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3+ goals
23%
Durango 1+ goals
65%
Durango 2+ goals
28%
Durango 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alebrijes de Oaxaca (draw refunded)
68%
Durango (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alebrijes de Oaxaca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.20 · 120 matches

Durango away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack 1.41 + Durango defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.65

Durango attack 0.89 + Alebrijes de Oaxaca defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Alebrijes de Oaxaca scores more
52%
level
25%
Durango scores more
24%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Alebrijes de Oaxaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Oaxaca
WLLDL
Durango
LLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alebrijes de Oaxaca face Durango (Liga de Expansión MX)

Liga de Expansión MX returns with Alebrijes de Oaxaca hosting Durango. Match starts September 11, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.