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Aldosivi vs Union Santa Fe — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018

Aldosivi
Aldosivi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Union Santa Fe
Union Santa Fe
9/27/2019Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round 8Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Aldosivi36%
×Draw28%
Union Santa Fe36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aldosivi
1.16
Union Santa Fe
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 122 away

creates per match

Aldosivi
0.99
Union Santa Fe
0.96

allows per match

Aldosivi
1.39
Union Santa Fe
1.33

finishing

Aldosivi+0.00on par
Union Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldosivi ↓

Union Santa Fe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Aldosivi or draw
64%
Aldosivi or Union Santa Fe
72%
Draw or Union Santa Fe
64%

Winning margin

Aldosivi wins by 2+
15%
Union Santa Fe wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aldosivi 1+ goals
69%
Aldosivi 2+ goals
32%
Aldosivi 3+ goals
11%
Union Santa Fe 1+ goals
69%
Union Santa Fe 2+ goals
33%
Union Santa Fe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Aldosivi (draw refunded)
50%
Union Santa Fe (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldosivi at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.39 · 93 matches

Union Santa Fe away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldosivi attack 0.99 + Union Santa Fe defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Union Santa Fe attack 0.96 + Aldosivi defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Aldosivi scores more
36%
level
28%
Union Santa Fe scores more
36%

Aldosivi at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Aldosivi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Profesional Argentina: Aldosivi 1–2 Union Santa Fe

Union Santa Fe beat Aldosivi 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio José María Minella in Mar del Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.