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Alcúdia vs Mallorca II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Alcúdia
Alcúdia
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Mallorca II
Mallorca II
10/27/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 10Estadi Municipal Els Arcs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Alcúdia26%
×Draw25%
Mallorca II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcúdia
1.08
Mallorca II
1.56

Mallorca II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 80 away

creates per match

Alcúdia
1.44
Mallorca II
1.96

allows per match

Alcúdia
1.16
Mallorca II
0.72

finishing

Alcúdia+0.00on par
Mallorca II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcúdia ↓

Mallorca II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Alcúdia or draw
52%
Alcúdia or Mallorca II
75%
Draw or Mallorca II
74%

Winning margin

Alcúdia wins by 2+
10%
Mallorca II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Alcúdia 1+ goals
66%
Alcúdia 2+ goals
29%
Alcúdia 3+ goals
10%
Mallorca II 1+ goals
79%
Mallorca II 2+ goals
46%
Mallorca II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Alcúdia (draw refunded)
35%
Mallorca II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcúdia at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

Mallorca II away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.72 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcúdia attack 1.44 + Mallorca II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.08

Mallorca II attack 1.96 + Alcúdia defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alcúdia scores more
26%
level
25%
Mallorca II scores more
48%

Mallorca II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mallorca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Alcúdia 0–4 Mallorca II

Mallorca II beat Alcúdia 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal Els Arcs in Mallorca.