Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alcorcon vs Teruel — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Alcorcon
Alcorcon
Preview
16:00
Teruel
Teruel
1/24/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo
49%
Alcorcon
model favours
49%27%24%
1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Alcorcon49%
×Draw27%
Teruel24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcon
1.44
Teruel
0.91

Alcorcon creates 58% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Alcorcon
1.61
Teruel
0.79

allows per match

Alcorcon
1.03
Teruel
1.26

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par
Teruel+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Teruel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw
76%
Alcorcon or Teruel
73%
Draw or Teruel
51%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+
24%
Teruel wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals
76%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
42%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
18%
Teruel 1+ goals
60%
Teruel 2+ goals
23%
Teruel 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)
67%
Teruel (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Teruel away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 1.61 + Teruel defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Teruel attack 0.79 + Alcorcon defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Alcorcon scores more
49%
level
27%
Teruel scores more
24%

Alcorcon at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Alcorcon
DWLLW
Teruel
LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Alcorcon host Teruel

January 24, 2027: Alcorcon take on Teruel in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Alcorcon host Teruel at Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.