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Alcorcon vs Juventud Torremolinos — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Alcorcon
Alcorcon
Preview
15:00
Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
10/4/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo
50%
Alcorcon
model favours
50%25%25%
1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Alcorcon50%
×Draw25%
Juventud Torremolinos25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcon
1.60
Juventud Torremolinos
1.04

Alcorcon creates 54% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Alcorcon
1.61
Juventud Torremolinos
1.05

allows per match

Alcorcon
1.03
Juventud Torremolinos
1.58

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par
Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw
75%
Alcorcon or Juventud Torremolinos
75%
Draw or Juventud Torremolinos
50%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+
26%
Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals
80%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
47%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
22%
Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
65%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
28%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)
67%
Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 1.61 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.05 + Alcorcon defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Alcorcon scores more
50%
level
25%
Juventud Torremolinos scores more
25%

Alcorcon at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Alcorcon
DWLLW
Torremolinos
LLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Alcorcon host Juventud Torremolinos

October 4, 2026: Alcorcon take on Juventud Torremolinos in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Alcorcon host Juventud Torremolinos at Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.