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Alcorcon vs Europa Fc — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Alcorcon
Alcorcon
Preview
15:00
Europa Fc
Europa Fc
9/6/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo
46%
Alcorcon
model favours
46%26%28%

Alcorcon win just 18% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Alcorcon46%
×Draw26%
Europa Fc28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcon
1.52
Europa Fc
1.12

Alcorcon creates 36% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Alcorcon
1.61
Europa Fc
1.21

allows per match

Alcorcon
1.03
Europa Fc
1.42

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par
Europa Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Europa Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw
72%
Alcorcon or Europa Fc
74%
Draw or Europa Fc
54%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+
23%
Europa Fc wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals
78%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
45%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
20%
Europa Fc 1+ goals
67%
Europa Fc 2+ goals
31%
Europa Fc 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)
62%
Europa Fc (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Europa Fc away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 1.61 + Europa Fc defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

Europa Fc attack 1.21 + Alcorcon defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Alcorcon scores more
46%
level
26%
Europa Fc scores more
28%

Alcorcon at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Alcorcon
DWLLW
Fc
DDWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alcorcon vs Europa Fc — Match Preview

Alcorcon face Europa Fc on September 6, 2026 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Alcorcon host Europa Fc at Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.