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Alcantarilla vs Unión Molinense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Alcantarilla
Alcantarilla
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Unión Molinense
Unión Molinense
12/18/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 15Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Alcantarilla28%
×Draw29%
Unión Molinense44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcantarilla
0.95
Unión Molinense
1.27

Unión Molinense creates 34% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 67 away

creates per match

Alcantarilla
0.94
Unión Molinense
1.18

allows per match

Alcantarilla
1.35
Unión Molinense
0.97

finishing

Alcantarilla+0.00on par
Unión Molinense+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcantarilla ↓

Unión Molinense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Alcantarilla or draw
56%
Alcantarilla or Unión Molinense
71%
Draw or Unión Molinense
72%

Winning margin

Alcantarilla wins by 2+
10%
Unión Molinense wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Alcantarilla 1+ goals
61%
Alcantarilla 2+ goals
25%
Alcantarilla 3+ goals
7%
Unión Molinense 1+ goals
72%
Unión Molinense 2+ goals
36%
Unión Molinense 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Alcantarilla (draw refunded)
39%
Unión Molinense (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcantarilla at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

Unión Molinense away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcantarilla attack 0.94 + Unión Molinense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Unión Molinense attack 1.18 + Alcantarilla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alcantarilla scores more
28%
level
29%
Unión Molinense scores more
44%

Unión Molinense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Unión Molinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Alcantarilla 1–2 Unión Molinense

Unión Molinense beat Alcantarilla 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 18, 2022.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero in Alcantarilla.