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Albirex Niigata S vs Tampines Rovers — Premier League 2019

Albirex Niigata S
Albirex Niigata S
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Tampines Rovers
Tampines Rovers
8/19/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Jurong East Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Albirex Niigata S48%
×Draw21%
Tampines Rovers31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albirex Niigata S
2.06
Tampines Rovers
1.63

Albirex Niigata S creates 26% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 85 away

creates per match

Albirex Niigata S
2.61
Tampines Rovers
2.20

allows per match

Albirex Niigata S
1.06
Tampines Rovers
1.51

finishing

Albirex Niigata S+0.00on par
Tampines Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata S ↓

Tampines Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata S or draw
69%
Albirex Niigata S or Tampines Rovers
79%
Draw or Tampines Rovers
52%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata S wins by 2+
27%
Tampines Rovers wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata S 1+ goals
87%
Albirex Niigata S 2+ goals
61%
Albirex Niigata S 3+ goals
34%
Tampines Rovers 1+ goals
80%
Tampines Rovers 2+ goals
48%
Tampines Rovers 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata S (draw refunded)
61%
Tampines Rovers (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata S at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

Tampines Rovers away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.51 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata S attack 2.61 + Tampines Rovers defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 2.06

Tampines Rovers attack 2.20 + Albirex Niigata S defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Albirex Niigata S scores more
48%
level
21%
Tampines Rovers scores more
31%

Albirex Niigata S at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Albirex Niigata S will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albirex Niigata S vs Tampines Rovers

Albirex Niigata S beat Tampines Rovers 4-2 in Premier League on August 19, 2022.

The match was played at Jurong East Stadium in Singapore.