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Albirex Niigata S vs Hougang United — Premier League 2019

Albirex Niigata S
Albirex Niigata S
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hougang United
Hougang United
5/18/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Jurong East Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Albirex Niigata S58%
×Draw19%
Hougang United23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albirex Niigata S
2.38
Hougang United
1.46

Albirex Niigata S creates 63% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 83 away

creates per match

Albirex Niigata S
2.61
Hougang United
1.86

allows per match

Albirex Niigata S
1.06
Hougang United
2.14

finishing

Albirex Niigata S+0.00on par
Hougang United+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata S ↓

Hougang United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata S or draw
77%
Albirex Niigata S or Hougang United
81%
Draw or Hougang United
42%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata S wins by 2+
36%
Hougang United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata S 1+ goals
91%
Albirex Niigata S 2+ goals
68%
Albirex Niigata S 3+ goals
42%
Hougang United 1+ goals
77%
Hougang United 2+ goals
43%
Hougang United 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata S (draw refunded)
71%
Hougang United (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata S at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

Hougang United away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.14 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata S attack 2.61 + Hougang United defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.38

Hougang United attack 1.86 + Albirex Niigata S defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Albirex Niigata S scores more
58%
level
19%
Hougang United scores more
23%

Albirex Niigata S at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Albirex Niigata S will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albirex Niigata S vs Hougang United

Albirex Niigata S beat Hougang United 1-0 in Premier League on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Jurong East Stadium in Singapore.