Albirex Niigata S 5–0 Geylang International

Albirex Niigata S

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Geylang International

9/11/2021

Premier League · Round 8Jurong East Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Albirex Niigata S56%

×Draw20%

Geylang International24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albirex Niigata SExpected goals in this matchGeylang International

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.42

Albirex Niigata S

2.27

Geylang International

1.42

Albirex Niigata S creates 60% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 81 away

2.61

creates per match

1.78

1.06

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Albirex Niigata S

2.61

Geylang International

1.78

allows per match

Albirex Niigata S

1.06

Geylang International

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albirex Niigata S+0.00on par

Geylang International+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata S ↓

Geylang International →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata S or draw

76%

Albirex Niigata S or Geylang International

80%

Draw or Geylang International

44%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata S wins by 2+

35%

Geylang International wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata S 1+ goals

90%

Albirex Niigata S 2+ goals

66%

Albirex Niigata S 3+ goals

39%

Geylang International 1+ goals

76%

Geylang International 2+ goals

41%

Geylang International 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata S (draw refunded)

70%

Geylang International (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata S at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

Geylang International away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.93 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata S attack 2.61 + Geylang International defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.27

Geylang International attack 1.78 + Albirex Niigata S defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Albirex Niigata S scores more

56%

level

20%

Geylang International scores more

24%

Albirex Niigata S at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Albirex Niigata S will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff