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Albirex Niigata S vs DPMM FC Brunei — Premier League 2019

Albirex Niigata S
Albirex Niigata S
CANC
09:30
DPMM FC Brunei
DPMM FC Brunei
8/2/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Jurong East Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Albirex Niigata S54%
×Draw21%
DPMM FC Brunei25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albirex Niigata S
2.12
DPMM FC Brunei
1.38

Albirex Niigata S creates 54% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 40 away

creates per match

Albirex Niigata S
2.61
DPMM FC Brunei
1.70

allows per match

Albirex Niigata S
1.06
DPMM FC Brunei
1.63

finishing

Albirex Niigata S+0.00on par
DPMM FC Brunei+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata S ↓

DPMM FC Brunei →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata S or draw
75%
Albirex Niigata S or DPMM FC Brunei
79%
Draw or DPMM FC Brunei
46%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata S wins by 2+
32%
DPMM FC Brunei wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata S 1+ goals
88%
Albirex Niigata S 2+ goals
62%
Albirex Niigata S 3+ goals
35%
DPMM FC Brunei 1+ goals
75%
DPMM FC Brunei 2+ goals
40%
DPMM FC Brunei 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata S (draw refunded)
69%
DPMM FC Brunei (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata S at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

DPMM FC Brunei away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata S attack 2.61 + DPMM FC Brunei defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.12

DPMM FC Brunei attack 1.70 + Albirex Niigata S defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Albirex Niigata S scores more
54%
level
21%
DPMM FC Brunei scores more
25%

Albirex Niigata S at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Albirex Niigata S will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Albirex Niigata S host DPMM FC Brunei

August 2, 2020: Albirex Niigata S take on DPMM FC Brunei in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Albirex Niigata S host DPMM FC Brunei at Jurong East Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.